Obama definitely has the home field advantage with the media in his pocket and lotsa money money money. But perhaps McCain only needs to play for a tie.
First off, we all know that polling consistently over-samples Democrats due to selection bias. This doesn’t just show up in pre-election polling, but in exit polling as well. Barack Obama has an even greater history of over-polling. This comes to us from Ace of Spades via Politico.
In theory, exit polls should match election results. But for all the care that goes into conducting accurate exit polls, errant results aren’t completely uncommon. Respected polling analyst Mark Blumenthal found that during the Democratic primaries this year, preliminary exit polls overestimated Obama’s strength in 18 of 20 states, by an average error of 7 percentage points, based on leaked early results.
The reason? Obama’s supporters were younger, better educated and often more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s, meaning they were more likely to participate in exit polls.
See, Politico has finally figured out that in polling, there is this thing called “selection bias”. There is also the related variable called “get the hell out of my face and leave me alone you nosy bastards.” And exit pollsters, God love ’em, just don’t seem to be able to figure out how to quantify this.
So perhaps McCain only needs to get this thing close. The most recent Rasmussen Polls show him once again up in the must wins of Ohio and Florida. That is certainly good news.
Jim Geraghty at NRO reports on the mood of his secret mentor nickname Obi Wan Kenobi. OWK is not as worried as many of us are. He thinks the dynamic of the race changed after the last debate and that Obama is on his heels.
Obi Wan is wondering about the timing of the Colin Powell endorsement, too. I had figured that Powell’s nod would have been a bigger help to Obama earlier in the race – recall the rumors of Powell speaking at the Democratic Convention. Obi-Wan figures this was one of the best cards Obama had left to play, and he played it in the next-to-last weekend instead of the final weekend. He wonders if internal polling prompted the Obama camp to roll out Powell a bit earlier than planned.
“McCain had a very good week,” he told me. “He looked presidential at Al Smith dinner and he had everybody talking Joe the Plumber and taxes the next few days. And the debate performance may have been as big as Kennedy in ’60 — that important, because the undecideds were watching.”
“We have just seen the greatest economic scare since the Great Depression and everybody is looking at polls as if they are business as usual. That’s crazy.”
I wondered aloud whether the media’s day by day coverage could push people off those gut reactions – suspicion of “spreading the wealth around,” relating to Joe the Plumber, etc.
“If so, the American people aren’t the American people anymore,” Obi Wan responded. “Believe me, there is someone in the Obama campaign who is deathly afraid of the ‘McCain pulls even or goes ahead’ poll.” (And in Gallup, it was within 2 percent.) “That Obama strategist knows how much depends on the whole Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel approach —.work with the media to demoralize conservatives, and keep the perception of a juggernaut going. But a day or two of a few bad polls, and that strategy backfires. The conservatives know they’ve still got a shot at this.”
A shot at this, that is all we can ask. Let’s get it close and maybe, just maybe we will find out that Obama has been over-polling once again. In the meantime, let’s wear out some rosary beads.
October 21, 2008 at 5:20 am
I agree, Patrick. First priority is don’t get demoralized. The Obama people want us to give up, but we must not. I have liberal friends who are so sure of this victory. Let’s make their overconfidence their handicap. Keep fighting and be sure to vote. And I agree about prayer. I pray when I walk to and from work and even on my lunch hour. Even if you don’t think you have time, make time. If you have nothing else to motivate you, think of the Supreme Court. The consequences of the next two to four picks will be felt for decades to come.
October 21, 2008 at 1:48 pm
When Kerry and Gore ran here in Democractic Party country, there were their respective yard signs all over the place in 2004 and 2000. Now, one is hard pressed to locate an Obama sign…and not because of race, as the city-county-state African-American candidates do extrememly well out here as candidates in the Party of Thugs, Thieves and Abortionists.
There has been lots of Obama hype and manipulation…but I think there is a big surprise coming for him on November 4th.
By the way, let’s pray for his poor grandmother.
October 21, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Fast – Pray – Vote.
The polls are soooo close for an election year that should be a landslide for the Dems and the Culture of Death.
Vote as though your life depended on it – because it does!
October 21, 2008 at 3:41 pm
Definitely pray and vote. But it doesn’t hurt to help do some campaigning if you are in a position to do it. McCain doesn’t have the money so, it will be won be person to person.
I live in the People’ Republic of Taxachusetts but we have a chance of winning in NH and maybe even Maine. So I am volunteering to campaign in NH several evenings the next few weeks.
This is definitely one that we can win and it’s one we certainly can’t afford to lose.
Matt O
October 21, 2008 at 5:21 pm
Selection bias is definitely a polling problem. Anecdotally, I’m a good example. I got one of those phone calls awhile ago, and being the crotchety old conservative that I am, I said, “No, thanks.”
Something the media don’t understand about their hype and the effect it has on polls: When they’ve already anointed a candidate “The One,” it makes some of us less likely to participate in polls because we just don’t want to become props in someone’s strawman fantasy — even if it’s just the young, idealistic pollster asking questions. I am most certainly not a racist, and damned if I’m gonna let someone think that about me. I’d rather just avoid that conversation all together.
October 22, 2008 at 4:31 am
Prayer and Fasting….