Gallup is making news because their most recent poll has McCain cutting Obama’s lead to two. Good news. And I’m happy about it.
But in this recent election cycle, Gallup has disgraced itself because they have all but openly admitted that they have absolutely no idea what’s going on. Instead of just releasing one poll and basing their reputation on its accuracy, Gallup is issuing two polls with two completely different turnout models.
They’re issuing a traditional model and an “expanded” version (which is kind of like New Coke, I guess.) You see, Gallup is saying that they don’t know how many people are going to turn out in this election so in the traditional model they’re expecting a record turnout of about 60 percent of registered voters to vote in this election. That would be a record. The “expanded” model, however, is based on something like 2/3 of voters turning out. This is the ‘we love Obama’ model that says Obama voters are going to come out in not just record numbers but they’re going to shatter records.
Maybe the expanded version is right but isn’t it the job of a polling company to figure out who’s coming out to vote and who isn’t? I mean, that is their job.
But here’s the result of issuing two polls. Today, according to Gallup’s traditional model, McCain is down two. Good news, like I said. But according to the expanded model McCain’s down seven. And there’s a margin of error of three on each. So if McCain wins by one Gallup can say they were right on because it was within their margin of error. And if Obama wins by ten, that too will be in the margin of error.
If I want to know how the race is going within an 11 point estimation I can pretty much talk to anybody. It’s a little silly for Gallup to be no more precise than regular folks like me who are just guessing. Gallup should just rename themselves the CYA pollsters. No matter what happens they’re covered.
October 29, 2008 at 3:24 am
How come Gallup thinks only Obama voters are going to come out in record numbers, but not McCain voters? Or am I asking a silly and naive question again?
October 29, 2008 at 4:08 am
Everywhere Sarah Palin goes she breaks attendance records but that’s oddly not taken into account.
October 29, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Everywhere Sarah Palin goes she breaks attendance records but that’s oddly not taken into account.
Because she is likely attracting hardcore GOP’ers (35% of the electorate) and not independents and undecideds, without which McCain can’t win.
The problem with the Gallup poll is that while it shows Obama only 2 points ahead it is a national poll (by the way, Bush was 2 points ahead at this point in 2004). Obama has already locked up nearly all the electoral votes he needs to win. In order for McCain to win, he needs all of the States that are solidly for him, all of the States that are leaning for him, all of the toss-up States (including Florida where even Rasmussen has Obama 4 points ahead), plus Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and either New Mexico or Nevada:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5
Meanwhile McCain is spending a lot of time in PA where he is 10 points behind.
October 29, 2008 at 1:39 pm
They always expect the MTV kids to turn out in record numbers. I’m hoping they sleep in again.
October 29, 2008 at 1:49 pm
What scares me is the fraud in Ohio and the record turn out in swing states. I does look like there will be record turn out for Obama, but what’s to say people scared of Obama won’t do the same.
I agree with Daddio, every 4 years they always talk about the college age vote being a key segment but most of them are too lazy to show up or even apply for an absentee ballot in time let alone register. I was in college in 2004 and they said the same thing and again they were the lowest voting block.
November 2, 2008 at 2:49 pm
“All other things being equal, the simplest solution is the best.” Occam’s razor
The real reason Obama is worried about Tuesday is that in the 37 state Democratic Party Primary contests, he won 18 of 37 elections. He also won 13 of 14 caucuses. His losses included Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio; all battleground states. He has the MSM convincing voters that he can win a national 50 state election when he failed in doing so within his own party’s 37 multi-state contests.
McCain, on the other hand, won Florida, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Ohio, during the Republican Primary season. And, the one caucus contest Obama lost; it was Nevada – another battleground state.
Question: What if the NFL’s NFC or AFC sent to the Superbowl a team that went 4-0 pre-season but played 1 under .500 in the regular season? The bookmakers in Vegas would offer laughable odds and the television network carrying the broadcast could not sell a dime’s worth of ad time at real Superbowl rates. Fans would boycott the game and sportswriters would mock the event.
Only the American voter will suspend disbelief and conclude a primary contest equals in value to a caucus contest. No, my friend, a caucus is a caucus and a primary is a primary. Obama is in a 50 state general election and he does poorly in those races. That’s why the campaign is worried and that’s why Obama will lose.
http://www.redstate.com/diaries/anonymous_14/2008/oct/30/what-you-were-never-intended-to-know-in-this/#c71070