WoW! McCain is still in this!!
Matt Drudge reports “ZOGBY: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING”
ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama’s lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all…
November 1, 2008 at 2:39 am
Zogby had Obama leading by 7 points yesterday. An 8-point shift is simply not believable (and I can’t get to Zogby’s web site right now to actually confirm the poll results reported by Drudge). The RCP average is 6.5.
November 1, 2008 at 2:51 am
dcs,
That is quite simply beside the point. Everyone knows the RCP average as Obama supporters quote it everyday.
The point is, even if this poll is back to Obama +3 tomorrow, McCain is in contention. Take out the outliers from the RCP avg and most polls show it 3-5. Definitely an advantage for Obama but McCain is still there.
November 1, 2008 at 12:32 pm
There’s enough methodological problems that I think we can assume that all of these polls are wildly off.
However, this poll is significant for two reasons:
1. As we well know, polling overrepresents Democrats (particularly in this election.) So a poll showing McCain up is at least a bit meaningful.
2. This can re-energize the McCain voters, many of whom–including myself– were becoming depressed about next week’s prospects. This could improve turnout for our side.
Two other points:
1. Win or lose, the GOP has a history of closing fast. Obama in particular has a history of closing poorly. We could be seeing a great deal of people having doubts and second guessing Obama. In fact, I’d argue the internals of this poll support that notion.
2. There’s an aweful lot of us heeding Father Corapi’s call to pray a pre-election Novena. AND an aweful lot of people participating in 40 Days for Life. Yesterday I met a woman who believed very strongly that our prayers would lead a stunned America to wake up Wednesday morning to a President-elect McCain. I know the Novena is merely prayer for God’s will to be done in our country–but I certainly think that could manifest itself in Barack Obama not becoming president.
November 1, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Another thing I just thought of:
Has anybody else noticed that McCain always seems to close at the end of the weeks? Monday’s polls always show Obama up 8, 10, 12 points. By Friday, it’s down to 3-ish (or in this case a McCain lead.)
November 1, 2008 at 2:26 pm
IIRC, Zogby’s generally one of the most accurate pollsters out there, no?
November 1, 2008 at 4:49 pm
Steve, Republicans don’t poll well on weekend polls. They’re out at soccer games.
November 2, 2008 at 12:53 am
Steve, Republicans don’t poll well on weekend polls. They’re out at soccer games.
Republicans don’t watch soccer – only immigrants and ex-pats do and we know they are all Democrats. Republicans watch NASCAR. Or did you mean that Republicans are watching their children’s soccer games? How sad that Republicans should compromise their principles.
😉
November 2, 2008 at 1:06 am
I have been praying the novena to Our Lady of Victory that is on Fr. Corapi’s site with the specific intentions of victory for McCain- Palin, Republican victories in Congress, and for California props 4 and 8. Also I have been making phone calls from home to voters listed on the McCain web site. If you live in a swing state, calls to get out the vote could make all the difference. The local offices of the Republican party also need lots of volunteer support on Monday and Tuesday – manning the phones and poll watching. Don’t let yourself, your friends and neighbors sit this one out. (BTW – I’m just listening to Hugh Hewitt on line. There is now a sound bite of Obama promising that we are four days away from fundamentally changing the United States – Oh, dear Lord, may Heaven forbid it). Our Lady of Victory, pray for us. Kit.
November 2, 2008 at 1:15 am
Correction – Obama actually said “five days away from fundamentally transforming” the country. Whew, that was a close one. Kit
November 2, 2008 at 8:19 am
The Drudge misrepresented the report that Zogby reported earlier. He did this by misrepresenting how data in the Zogby tracking poll is supposed to be used. It is a tracking poll of a number of days; one day’s data is insignificant unless other days show corroboration. Here is what Zogby is saying as of today, Nov. 2, 2008:
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: One Day Is Not A Trend: Obama Holds His Lead
Obama 49.5%, McCain 43.8%
UTICA, New York — After a strong day of polling for Republican presidential candidate John McCain on Friday, Democrat Barack Obama experienced a strong single day of polling on Saturday, retaining a 5.7 point advantage that is right at the edge of the margin of error of the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll. The race has remained remarkably stable down the stretch, this three-day rolling average poll shows.
Data from this poll is available here
Pollster John Zogby: “Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.
“So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.
“Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else’s) health.”
See it for yourself at:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1627
Obama will be our next president. It will be a welcome change to honesty and intelligence and away from the lying and prevaricating that have been the hallmark of the Republican party in recent years.
November 2, 2008 at 1:43 pm
I’m rooting for a Battle of Lepanto scenario. Keep the prayers coming…