This is the thing to do as one year draws to a close and another begins. Here are my predictions for 2009.
I am not a prophet, so most of what I am writing is likely nonsense. My qualification for offering predictions for the future of a geopolitical happenings is exactly nil. But that will not stop me for you will not be able to ridicule me for being so completely wrong for 12 months. I think that 2009 will be seen in the future as the year when the seeds of a future great conflagration began to sprout. This is momentously scary time. As you will no doubt be able to tell, I am not in a particularly optimistic mood. Here Goes.
Temporary uphill before going off the cliff. In the first half of 2009 we will see a modest recovery in the U.S. economy only to be followed by even more serious financial turmoil and deepening recession. When I say recovery, I really mean a slowdown in the negative growth giving some false hope that the recession may be nearing and end. Instead it will be the beginning of even harder times.
Runaway inflation and unemployment. All this stimulus and cheap money designed to address the slowdown will actually make things worse. It will give us a head fake toward recovery but soon will have the opposite effect. It will lead to runaway inflation beginning in the second half of 2009. This inflation could top double digits and beyond in 2010. Unemployment the same.
More Riots in Europe. What will be hitting us economically will also hit Europe and maybe just as hard. The riots these past weeks in Greece are just the beginning. Ostensibly related to a police shooting, the real cause was economic. Greece is an economic basket case with massive crushing debt. The fact that this rioting has spread to other European cities shows that this frustration is widespread especially among youth. All this is just the beginning of the woes. As the economy dramatically worsens in the second half of 2009, rioting will be more widespread. Italy, France, England, and Germany will not be spared.
Russia. The war weary and economically troubled U.S. will retreat from the world creating a vacuum that will eventually be explosively filled. This isn’t really a prediction since it is already happening. The U.S. is trying to fulfill its obligations in Iraq and Afghanistan, but has thrown up its hands at many of the worlds other issues. Russia will continue to provoke and test the U.S. but our responses will invariably be weak. Georgia was the first step and the military visits to Venezuela and Cuba were the next ones. Russia will get bolder and bolder in their moves and may even conduct another military invasion in one of their former satellites. The U.S. will condemn but again do nothing. As a result, all of eastern Europe will tremble.
Germany. Germany. Germany. This is where I really think we should keep our eyes. Germany is the economic and political powerhouse in Europe. As the U.S. fades from the scene, look for Germany to cozy up to Russia. Germany gets much of its energy from Russia and cannot now do anything to provoke her. Look for Germany to look the other way if and when Russia begins reacquiring its satellites. As a result, Europe and NATO will do nothing to oppose Russian aggression. The rest of Europe will be slow to realize the threat posed by this unholy alliance as they are consumed with economic woes and disgruntled populations. They will eventually realize, but it will be late. As always in Europe that eventually means war. Obviously this not all happen in 2009, but the we will see the beginning of it taking shape during the year. Whether in 2009 or after, look to Germany to find a more assertive leader. In these times of economic distress and faced with a more aggressive Russia, the Germans will seek a leader who is more assertive of Germany’s place in Europe. As you know, that never ends well.
Also look for the fringe anti-immigrant groups to gain in popularity and strength throughout Europe when riots and upheaval break out in the various economically depressed immigrant ghettos. The happenings in France summer before last are just a taste. Faced with economic problems of their own, Europeans will be less tolerant of this protest and more receptive to an anti-immigrant sentiment. We might see some growing public racial incidents through the year. Most won’t take much notice of it, but it will happen with increasing frequency.
My world champion NY Giants will lose in the first round of the playoffs but the Mets will win the world series. This is prediction I am least confident about.
Iran gets the bomb and Israel does nothing. Without the U.S. backing it and afraid of going it alone against the Arab response, Israel will not attack Iran. Instead, with much fanfare, Iran will make a very public show of becoming a nuclear power. As a result, the entire world will be much less safe.
After all the silly talk about Obama moderating, he will carry through on his threat to promote and sign FOCA. In 2009, at least one of the liberal justices who have been waiting out Bush will resign and open a SCOTUS spot. Obama will fill this with a radically pro-abortion candidate ala RB Ginsburg. Some of his spending plans will be limited by the facts on the ground, but his social agenda will proceed unfettered.
I have been predicting this one for a while, but I think this may be the year it finally happens. Emboldened by the success of the Somali pirate industry, Islamic terrorists will attack a cruise ship killing hundreds or thousands. The ultimate high profile soft target. Overnight, an entire industry will be destroyed and the general populace will be reminded of their vulnerability. Democrats will, of course, blame everybody else even though they run everything.
Open hostilities will break out between India and Pakistan. Not a full scale war but the beginning of a cycle of attack and retaliation. Pakistan, increasingly a failed state, will be unable to control the more radical elements in that country. Another high profile incident like in Mumbai will force India to act. This is one big powder keg with nuclear weapons involved. A large, but as of yet unanswered question, is how will the west attempt to secure Pakistan’s’ nukes once it is clear the state is failing. My guess is that the U.N., NATO, Europe and the U.S. will wrangle unsuccessfully over this issue while India sits in the cross hairs.
This is all just a precursor to what is looming. 2011-2012 is when things will get even worse. I am probably wrong about all this but just in case I am not, now I am on record.
Oh, and by the way, the new Terminator movie will stink really really bad. Highlander II bad. Jar Jar Binks bad. I mean Superman IV: The Quest for Peace bad.
So there it is. War, rumors of war, and bad sequels. Bad times.
December 16, 2008 at 4:40 am
You light up my life, Patrick!
Your post makes “The Gathering Storm” look like corcerns over a neighborhood brawl.
And you say that 2009 is the brightest of the next several years? How ironic in that I am reading now at last “Lord of the Rings” part III. It’s all quite timely.
And yet here I always thought that I was the greatest socio-political pessimist.
December 16, 2008 at 4:55 am
And here I was looking forward to the Terminator sequel!
December 16, 2008 at 5:07 am
I’ve been telling anyone who would listen (nobody), buy food- lots of food. If we’re headed for an inflationary depression -very likely- think a loaf of bread for $10, a gallon of milk the same, and probably more. Load up now. Check out the Mormon food stocking sites for some tips.
We will have to withdraw our troops from all over the world, and by monetizing our debt or defaulting on our obligations (national bankruptcy) we are going to infuriate our creditors. China comes to mind.
Korea and Australia will be theirs for the taking, and Japan will learn all about payback. Hawaii is a possibility.
“Nation will rise against nation, and kings will go down by one another’s swords.”
I think most history majors know we are at the end of the republic. We’ve been under a judicial tyranny for decades and are morphing into a dictatorship. It may take a few years to be overwhelmingly obvious.
Giving Obama a pass on proving his citizenship (why has he not simply proffered his birth certificate instead of spending lots of money in legal fees to fight something like 11 lawsuits) means that we are acquiescing in becoming a government of men and not of laws.
But I expect that he will be overthrown in a military coup in the foreseeable future, and we will become a dictatorship of the right rather than the left.
In fact, I expect such disorder in this country that we are going to beg for a dictatorship to restore order.
In other words, we are becoming a banana republic.
Maybe we expected a blessing.
December 16, 2008 at 5:21 am
Lee, very interesting and optimistic comments on Patrick’s post.
Actually, we seem more analogous to Mussolini’s coming into power as a popular socialist…but with our guy who is just a few pounds lighter but just as delusional. And I just read that he appointed another Chicago [my home town] hack…this one as Secretary of Education…whatever that means any more.
I wonder if watching reruns of “I Claudius” can help us get a handle on all of this?
December 16, 2008 at 8:46 am
But look on it from the bright side.. at least your blog will have millions of readears since you predicted it all… I shure hope I´ll have access to internet when the Russians or zi Germans come. Without food, water and living in the basement I´ll need a good laugh.
December 16, 2008 at 10:51 am
“2011-2012 is when things will get even worse…”
That’s the year I’m hoping my Mayan calendar business booms…
December 16, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I hope you are right with all this. My stockpile of Y2K provisions have been doing nothing but collect dust.
December 16, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Jay, you are supposed to be rotating through those provisions! You do not want to eat 8 year old beans or drink water that’s been sitting in a plastic jug for 8 years! Ugh. The Mormons know a thing or 2 about this and they have very good ideas about what to keep and how to rotate the stock so that you actually do have food in a crisis and not just nasty sludge in a can.
December 16, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Did you have to go and ruin the Terminator sequel for me? It is bad enough that you think my beloved Giants will lose in the first round of the playoffs, but you have to ruin the movie also?
December 16, 2008 at 2:56 pm
My world champion NY Giants will lose in the first round of the playoffs but the Mets will win the world series. This is prediction I am least confident about.
Technically the former is impossible since the Giants will have a bye one way or the other. I’d like to think we can have a double championship like we did in 86-87, but as much as I love the Giants, I’m really craving another Mets world championship.
December 16, 2008 at 3:23 pm
Lee Gilbert: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tinfoil_hat
There might be a great chastisement coming. But let’s not turn into the “Left Behind” crowd here.
December 16, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Dear Mr. Crankypants,
I should have written in their first game of the playoffs. The way they have played the last 2 weeks, they might prefer just to call in sick.
The Mets on the other hand, after some good trades…well let’s just say I am slightly less despondent.
December 16, 2008 at 4:53 pm
The way they have played the last 2 weeks, they might prefer just to call in sick.
We’ll see after the Carolina game. Before these past two weeks, I think we all had them pencilled into the SB, so I’m not going to write them off yet.
And I was just needling you about losing in the first round. Hopefully you are wrong, but for the first time since about week three, I’m a little worried.
December 16, 2008 at 4:56 pm
You little optitmist, you! But aren’t you dancing around the real issue…global warming?? We’re all gonna die! We’re either doomed to a global warming induced freezing or being squished in one of those hideous little clown cars.
December 16, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Cranky… no worries I was with you.
Deryn. Excellent point. I should have made one more prediction. The Earth will continue NOT to get hotter.
December 16, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Are we all sure Patrick wasn’t just playing “Spore” really late at night and just thought it was the world news?
December 16, 2008 at 11:19 pm
I say this as a fan of this blog (in agreement with the posts most of the time) and also as a devout Catholic of Polish backround who has lived there (I don’t have to remind anyone of the history between those two nations)…
I do not understand why some Catholics persist in this villification of Russia. I know the neo-cons want to take the cold war into overtime and I know that a certain segment among the Evangelicals thinks that Russia is the “Gog” of the book of Revelation and will nuke Isreal in the “end times” at the bidding of the anti-Christ.
So Russian ships were in “our” hemipshere, going to Venezuala and such, how short is your memory though? Was it really that long ago when certain powerful US politicans of both parties were wanting to expand NATO memembership to Georiga and Ukraine (which had that been done this summer would have provked a world war)?
Was it that long ago when the US and EU presided over the severing of Kosovo from Serbia? Was it really that long ago when US planes were bombing bridges in Belgrade on Orthodox Easter despite pleas from the Russians, the Greeks, and Pope John Paul II not to do so? Was it really that long ago when in the wake of the fall of Communism the USA treated Russia like a third-rate nation that could be walked all over?
I know Hillary says Putin has no soul and McCain says he looks into his eyes and sees only “KGB” but George Bush had said that Putin has a good soul. For what it is worth, I think Putin and Medvedev are in a very small minority of world-leaders in that they are orthodox (small “o”) and practicing Christians.
Has anyone noticed the almost miraculus growth of the Russian Orthodox Chuch in the past 10 years? I know its not the Catholic Church but still valid apostolic succession and sacrments should count for something. Russia is becoming more religious while (most) of the west is becoming less so. If Russia is to start having a stronger influence in the EU, that is probably for the best, I bet Bennedict would welcome it.
December 17, 2008 at 12:12 am
Anonymous,
I am not a neo-con (however the various name-callers define it). I did not suggest, since my memory is fine, that Russian vessels in our hemisphere will provoke a war. I said Russia will continue to provoke and test. They have and they will. I said that Russia is aggressive and is interested in expanding its influence over its former satellites. They did it in Georgia and I said they may do it again. They very well may.
This is not vilifying Russia. I did not predict war with Russia. In fact I predict the opposite, that NATO and the EU will do nothing.
You seem to read much into my post that is not there.
I normally do not engage anonymous posters but I wish to clarify what seems a complete misreading of my post. I believe that your comment is evidence of your biases, not mine.
December 17, 2008 at 1:01 am
the Mets will win the world series
Yeah, they’re the Team to Beat(tm) … again.
December 17, 2008 at 2:42 am
M. Swaim said…
“2011-2012 is when things will get even worse…”
That’s the year I’m hoping my Mayan calendar business booms…”
And you were going to use those profits for what exactly? Buying replica crystal skulls? Investing in Yahoo?
At least this thread reaffirms that we RC’s don’t have to dumb down to a “Don’t worry, be happy” ethos that is often the boiled down thesis of so many homilies I hear Sunday after Sunday.