Although it’s not being reported as such, Rasmussen reports a very worrisome number for the Democrats and President Obama:
If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.
In both match-ups, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, with three percent (3%) undecided.
Palin is second only to Romney as the presidential candidate Republican voters say right now that they’ll vote for in 2012 state GOP primaries. But she’s also one of two candidates they least hope wins the party’s nomination.
Now, in the media I’ve seen, everyone’s making this a Romney vs. Palin story but to any political consultant the number that really jumps out is Obama’s.
When political folks are deciding whether to pour money into a race to unseat an incumbent one of the main things they do is, of course, poll. And it’s not that they’re expecting to see a close race because no challenger even exists at that point. What political consultants are looking for is the magic 50% number to re-elect.
The math is that if an incumbent has less than a 50% re-elect number, they’re vulnerable. And then the powers-that-be decide who they can get to run that can raise money or can self-finance.
And Obama tops out vs. Palin at 48%. And he’s a tad lower vs. Romney at 45%.
To Republicans, this number means that Obama can be beaten. And the money people may very well come out to play.
To Democrats, it’s far more worrisome. Many Democrats have won seats in traditionally red districts the last two cycles and they know that they’re vulnerable themselves. So they have to moderate their votes to appeal to moderates and some right wingers in order to stay in power. But Obama is pushing them hard to the left to support cap and trade as well as his health care plan. Those legislators seeing polls like this start thinking that if Obama is vulnerable they can’t follow his lead.
Obama’s strength comes from high poll numbers. If, as this poll seems to indicate is happening, his numbers drop many legislators may just ignore Obama and focus on pleasing their constituents. So polls like this have a very real effect on Obama’s legislation right now. But you’re not going to see much of that reported by the Ordinary Ministers of the media.
Update: Ed Morrissey at Hot Air seems to agree.
July 21, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Cathy – don't be so naive and arrogant. Just because we don't agree with your choice doesn't mean we don't "understand MA politics". We just don't like it. If you are willing to sell your soul then that's your issue.
And I don't think ANYONE here is championing or overlooking pro-abortion Catholic politicians in MA or anywhere. It simply isn't the topic of coversation on this particular post (but if you read this blog regularly, they are pointed out often).
July 21, 2009 at 5:41 pm
If you are willing to sell your soul then that's your issue.
*cough* Might want to watch the arrogance, if that's so important to you…..
July 21, 2009 at 5:44 pm
As I said–Mitt Romeny is not the enemy in a national election. And goodness, I've never read comments from political partisans on this blog before!
At least I put my name on my entry, btw.
And, yes, I'll say it again: there is no other state in the union where it is harder to be a Republican. State party registration: 11%
July 21, 2009 at 9:02 pm
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July 21, 2009 at 9:05 pm
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July 21, 2009 at 9:11 pm
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July 21, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Thank you for posting and commenting. I am overjoyed to see the political vulnerability of Obama especially since his recent coronation when he appeared to be immortal. It's only July, and the emperor is starting to lose some of his clothes. Let's be patient with Republican candidates and not rip each other apart. Otherwise, it amounts to shilling for President BHO.
I have no issue with Mormons in public office. I know Mormons personally and they are fine people…maybe a bit strange…but good and decent folk.
July 21, 2009 at 10:13 pm
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July 21, 2009 at 10:19 pm
*grin* Politely said, Mr. Hetman.
I do like the "live and let live" style of religion in officials– assuming folks are honest about what they believe, of course.
July 21, 2009 at 10:31 pm
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July 21, 2009 at 10:40 pm
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July 22, 2009 at 4:24 am
I think all anti-Romney bloggers should be deleted. Only Mit Romney bloggers should be allowed. Go Romney!!!GO!!!!
July 22, 2009 at 5:03 am
To the Anonymous who commented after me:
Let us put it this way: with the economy in the tank, abortion becomes cost-efficient for a large swath of people. All that we can really hope for from a President is he reinstates abortion restrictions, which we are likely to see from Mitt. Likewise, he'll be guided towards pro-life judges by his staff (though, I would prefer he appoint judges who go off precedent and American case law), and perhaps send legislation to Congress. No President will magically eliminate abortion or stem-cell research from the land, and even if he does, the next guy is likely to change that.
All that said, I don't trust Palin to handle the economy. I mean, http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/07/palin-speech-edit-200907?currentPage=1
I think Romney has a much better chance of both beating Obama and getting things back on a more capitalistic track.
That being said, Obama's poll numbers are encouraging.
July 23, 2009 at 4:13 am
Interestingly enough, every "Facebook" poll I take shows an overwhelming number of people opposing most, if not all, of Obama's plans (and his Presidency). And this is his "base."
July 23, 2009 at 4:50 pm
I think all anti-Romney bloggers should be deleted. Only Mit Romney bloggers should be allowed. Go Romney!!!GO!!!!
I'm by no means pro-Romney and don't think anti-Romney posts should be banned. I just request that they not have foundations in anti-Catholic conspiracy fantasies.
July 26, 2009 at 8:17 am
OBAMA AVOIDS BIBLE VERSES !
Here are some Bible verses that Pres. Obama avoids:
Proverbs 19:10 (NIV): "It is not fitting for a fool to live in luxury – how much worse for a slave to rule over princes!"
Also Proverbs 30:22 (NIV) which says that the earth cannot bear up under "a servant who becomes king."
And Ecclesiastes 5:2-3 (KJV) advises: "let thy words be few…a fool's voice is known by multitude of words."
Although Obama is not descended from slaves, he may feel that he's destined to become a black-slavery avenger.
Or maybe an enslaver of all free citizens!
July 29, 2009 at 8:39 pm
Go to my blog and view the Romney video there – http://backpew.blogspot.com/2009/07/mitt-romney-i-believe-abortion-should.html – then start thinking: Huckabee in 2012.