I honestly do not know what to make of this story.
The administration says it has credible evidence that Iran plotted to kill the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. But the plot is so stupid, that it has some people wondering if the whole thing is not some sort of hoax.
There are some points that would make one question this whole garish tale. Most important:
–This does not match past Iranian practice. Many “experts” think this is the clincher, but precedent is not always a reliable guide. Things change. Be careful on this point.
–Why should some Iranian-American businessman in Texas be a key Iranian agent? It’s called secret agent work for a reason. A sleeper cell should not be obvious. And he did have a relative in the Revolutionary Guards.
–Why didn’t Iran use its own assets? I think this is a stronger argument. The whole thing is amateurish. Even if Iran was going to do this, it would have developed these contacts and not immediately entrusted some drug gang official that one of their guys barely knew. Wouldn’t they have preferred to use Middle Easterners and Muslims?
–What was the Iranian goal? Certainly, Iran has been threatening the United States with dire consequences for a while. But why the sudden decision to escalate? Revenge for sanctions? And what was their plan for concealing Iranian involvement if the attack did happen? One can explain such a change, but one cannot explain it very well. This raises questions, but again is not a definitive answer.
(If I had to make a guess–and it is too early–I’d speculate that the Iranian agent(s) involved didn’t have full authorization to organize such attacks but that’s speculation.)
All that’s important is this: If the U.S. government has persuasive evidence that it can present, then it happened. Since the main defendent has turned state’s evidence then he will supply details and we would see that the story is true and the trail does lead back to Iran’s government. BUT if the Obama Administration can make the charges stick that is only the beginning of its problems!
So then what? If its true, this could be very bad news. Very bad. If its not true then the US has egg on its face and then this is very bad news. Either way, bad news.
I have to assume that the US has its ducks in a row on this even to come public with it, but who knows these days?
I can’t help but think that the ludicrousness of the plot works to Iran’s benefit. If it succeeds, it succeeds. If not, the craziness of it gives them some distance and deniability. Even if true, it makes it very hard to act on it because Iran will deny it and the ridiculousness of it helps their case.
Whatever happens now, the US better make a very convincing case very public or you will “wag the dog” about a million times over the next few weeks.
October 13, 2011 at 9:48 pm
The article is not correct.
This actually fits in very well with past Iranian behavior.
-They did this before in Argentina. (Their agents bombed the Israeli embassy directly, and a Jewish center in Buenos Aries.)
-Using American "lone wolf" types is an easier way to avoid having possibly known Hezbollah agents coming in to the US from Venezuela. This would also serve as an excellent test run for larger ops against the US.
-They are very well practiced in using operatives within the US and actually have a frighteningly LARGE network of them here.
-The motivation is a perfect fit for two reasons:
1. They believe they are very close now to the 2nd Persian Empire happening. Once the US leaves Iraq and Afghanistan they are in an excellent position to take them both over. Their proxies are poised to eliminate Israel and they are trying to position themselves as the next superpower in South America. The next step is to eliminate Sunnis. (Saudi Arabia)
2. Their ultimate goal is to bring about the 12th Imam or Mahdi. This requires a nuclear war. (Yes, really.) Hezbollah and Hamas are readying themselves for the next war with Israel. But if they can scare the Saudi's into developing their own nukes, then can then fulfill the "prophesy" of eliminating 1/3 of all Muslims – by have a nuclear exchange with them. (They also want one with US.) Therefore starting a war with the Saudi's is a great way for them to see the ultimate fulfillment of their religion.
October 14, 2011 at 1:16 am
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October 16, 2011 at 4:11 am
I laughed when I read the news reports. I'm not qualified to say anything with absolute certainty, but this thing smells fishy.
We can all agree that Iran is not a "good country", but the US too has been tainted by her Military Complex. We are fighting more covert wars that have been officially revealed, and we are gearing up again to enter into Iran? Shame.
Phil