I’ve been waiting and waiting for him and perhaps he has finally arrived. No, not Santa, Rick Santorum.
Normally I don’t put too much stock in what Dick Morris has to say, but since he is saying what I want to hear, I have decided to believe him.
All along, the Tea Party voters have yet to unite behind a single candidate. They still aren’t united, but in Iowa, there is evidence that Rick Santorum may be surging ahead.
In the Tea Party Patriots (TPP) telephone poll of 23,000 supporters nationally, Newt led with 31% of the vote, followed by Bachmann at 28%, Romney at 20% and Santorum with a surprising 16%.
And then there is the Rasmussen poll. Look at Santorum’s increase while the other candidates are steady or down.
Here are the stats from the past three Iowa Rasmussen Polls (Nov 15, Dec 13, and Dec 19)
RASMUSSEN POLLS IN IOWA
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Nov 15
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Dec 13
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Dec 19
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Romney
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19
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23
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25
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Paul
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10
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18
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20
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Gingrich
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32
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20
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17
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Santorum
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5
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6
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10
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Perry
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6
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10
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10
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Bachmann
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6
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9
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6
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Huntsman
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2
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5
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4
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There has always been a sort of mini-primary among the Tea Party followers among Gingrich, Perry, Bachmann, Cain, and Santorum – the candidates they find acceptable. Gingrich’s and Bachmann’s drop, Cain’s withdrawal, and Perry’s stagnation all contrast sharply with Santorum’s surge.
So is this the moment that we all (by which I mean me) have been waiting for?
Santorum’s biggest issue has been plausibility. If he can get into double digits in polls and surprise in Iowa with a solid ground game (which I hear he has) then this could go a long way toward plausibility. Then, then he might become THE conservative alternative to Mitt. And the bonus, he is an ACTUAL conservative.
Go Rick, Go Rick!!
December 26, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Just a piece of geo-political Iowa info (and something I am pondering…)
NW Iowa (Sioux City land) is very conservative (home to Rep Steve King) and is a sanctuary for those in the conservative Reformist faith tradition. I wonder what % of voters in that quadrant of the state want to vote for Santorum but have lingering Catholic predjudices that are preventing them to vocalize support? Or who fear what their fellow church family neighbors may say if they stand with Santorum. If he can win over that bunch – I think many support Bachmann or Perry, then it'll help him come Jan 3.
December 26, 2011 at 4:35 pm
Go Santorum!
December 26, 2011 at 5:02 pm
Money heading your way, Rick. Hope it helps!
December 26, 2011 at 5:30 pm
I like Santorum. And I would list him first as my vote. But I notice that Ron Paul's numbers have doubled too. And for all the craziness that Paul seems to espouse, I'd vote for him if he got the nomination. He's definitely pro-life and maybe we need someone in the White House who'll fight for some fiscal responsibility. So either guy, Santorum or Paul, would make me very happy— even if there are some who say that neither of them could beat Obama.
December 26, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Santorum is easily my favorite of the bunch as he is right on almost all of the issues (except torture) and it would be great to see him still in the race when it gets around to us in Pennsylvania (where we are always irrelevant as the matter is decided before getting to us in April). The questions that arise are: Does he have the Iowa organization to get his folks to the caucuses?; and given the quirky ways the caucuses work does a strong Iowa showing translate into anything beyond some increased press interest going to New Hampshire, South Carolina and later? I hope this turns out well for Rick because of the top three in the national polls 2 of them are at the bottom of my preference list.
December 26, 2011 at 11:39 pm
LOL!!! Gee, I thought it was Huntsmans turn for an MSM "surge" to distract from Ron Paul. He must be next after Santorum fizzles.
Sorry guys, it's going to be RON PAUL 2012!!
December 27, 2011 at 8:45 pm
Beware of any polls at this point in the campaign. This might just be the "Candidate of the Moment" we have been seeing since Michele Bachman came in first place last August. Also he is from the state of Iowa so that might be a factor.
December 29, 2011 at 3:48 am
@ Anon at 3:45 p.m. I think you're confusing Bachmann with Santorum. It is she who is from the state of Iowa.
As for Ron Paul, he won't get the nod, bank on it. The conservatives that are supporting either Gingrich, Santorum, Bachmann or Perry will not even consider Paul, not with his stances on marriage and Israel. Instead, they will end up supporting one or the other, propelling that candidate way ahead of Paul.