Rasmussen has been the most responsible polling outfit this election. And today’s poll has Romney up two. That’s a heck of a swing. And only two of the three days of polling took place after the drubbing that Romney put on Obama.
It pleases the heck out of me, not because I’m a huge supporter of Romney but I absolutely believe that freedom will be imperiled by a second Obama term.
But I read a little about the poll on the Rasmussen report and came across this. Now, keep in mind that Romney’s only up two.
Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16
. Are there really that many more Democrats. A 16 point advantage in independents but only a two percent lead? Make sense to any of you?
October 6, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Democrats are easier to reach the home phone surveys, maybe? Republicans are out working and running their kids to after school sports and clubs and church groups, maybe?
October 6, 2012 at 8:11 pm
A possible explanation is that more R are voting 3rd party. According to the data descriptions ("Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats."), the data does not indicate how many R or D are voting for another party (not voting at all?).
(Assuming equal D and R sampled (thanks Colleen) it comes out to 133-other (11+88-other+34) for Obama and 167-other (89-other+12+66) for Romney. Since the difference is only 2, there must be many more relative "other"'s for Romney.)
Gerry
October 7, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Still, please consider these factors:
1. In urban areas, Democrats (ironic name) control the voting through the placing of polls in union halls and in gang institutions which some with misplaced charity are pleased to call churches. And, as we saw in 2008, Dear Leader's brownshirts bully people at other polls, and the Ministry of Justice does nothing.
2. Democrats vote often, and don't have to be citizens.
3. Most people don't vote anyway; they just talk.
Man up, Americans, and vote as free people, vote in the face of bullying, intimidation, and physical violence.
October 7, 2012 at 2:48 pm
How does the fact that many households no longer use landline phones? There are many phones (voters) that are not accessible to pollsters.
October 8, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Maybe they're only calling Obamaphones.