This one hurt.
I advised my followers on Twitter last night that the next time I wrote a post about the polls being wrong, somebody should punch me in the ear.
So what does this mean? Many many people, including people smarter than me about these things, expected this to be a turnout election. We expected the turnout to be close to even with either a slight edge to Democrats or a slight edge to Republicans. Either way, most were in a agreement that it wouldn’t be anything like 2008. We were wrong. Exit polls have it pegged at D+6, fairly close to 2008.
So, what does this mean. It means that Republicans can no longer win national elections by turning out the base alone. They have to start convincing more people that they have the answers. They can no longer continue to write off blacks and Latinos as un-winnable and expect to win. There is just not enough base to do it.
Another lesson is that Catholics just don’t care in the slightest about the persecution initiated by this President and about the unborn. Every indication is that Catholics have granted an imprimatur for their own oppression. The reasons for this are a topic for another post.
Another key lesson Republicans should learn is about the nominating process. First, I don’t think that Mitt Romney is a bad man or that he was a particularly bad candidate. But, during the primary process conservatives looking for any alternative but Mitt bounced from candidate to candidate. For this we were harangued by party leadership and pundits alike that we had to nominate Mitt because he is ‘electable.’ To all those who beat us up over this back then, you know what you can go do to yourself.
I do not understand this ridiculous notion that we should nominate the candidate we like least so that others will like him. If we don’t like him, why the hell should anybody else? Republican moderates lose, period. I know the mantra by the Republican establishment will blame this on social conservatives and urge us to nominate someone even more moderate next time. They are idiots.
And the bottom line for me, if Americans would not reject this President under these circumstances, with a record of such unmitigated failure and with the prospect of country destroying debt looming, there may be no coming back for America. I am serious about that. Seriously, what will it take for Americans to change course? You would have to imagine that whatever it is it will be too late. I mean, look at Greece. They are past the point of no return and their country is in ruins and they still keep going. We. Are. Doomed.
I am buying beer, bullets, and a bus ticket to Texas and maybe somebody someday will pick the good fight.
November 7, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Mr. Archbold, the Ohio provisionals have not yet been counted, so no one has been elected yet.
God Bless.
November 7, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Pat – Sadly, I believe the only thing that will "bring America back" is the next world war. It is a geopolitical certainty within this century.
November 7, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Texas isn't far enough. My wife and I are making plans to leave this country before the next Presidential election.
November 7, 2012 at 1:55 pm
I being in NJ did not vote because my state was spoken for as deep blue. The electoral system is not like a country wherein there is a popular vote. I hated both candidates anyway but felt by the fiscal numbers, Ryan as vp would lead to more abortions via medicaid cuts…which Romney's "increase" of inflation plus 1% stood for ( medical inflation and nursing home inflation are over double the rate of general inflation). Medicaid covers 37% of prenatal/ births/ post partum in the US. Cut it and single females making $22K (31 in NY) will choose a much cheaper abortion at ten weeks. I therefore saw increased abortions as not just a law passing matter but as a medicaid cutting matter…so to me beneath the surface, both choices of president were de facto abortion promoting…one by law and the other by medicaid cuts.
November 7, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Come on down to Texas. If you come to my neck of the woods, we even have a doctor friend so medical needs are taken care of. Plus we have food and bullets. Lots and lots of bullets.
November 7, 2012 at 2:33 pm
With so much bad bews (Obama, gay marriage in Maine and Maryland, defeats of West and Mia Love), at least Cardinal Dolan gave the right answer:
http://whispersintheloggia.blogspot.com.br/2012/11/bishops-to-obama-we-will-continue-to.html
Best,
Pedro Erik
November 7, 2012 at 2:39 pm
I can't get on board with the "moderates lose" mantra—the data seem to point to "republicans lose." What is killing the GOP is demographics—we are competitive with white voters, but we’re DOA with hispanic and black voters, and there’s a pretty obvious consequence to that: We cease to be a viable national party if the white vote isn’t a supermajority of the population. It isn’t, and that’s only getting worse. And so we fix that or we die, but I don’t know that we fix it by nominating moderates or conservatives, particularly; I think those voters are turned off by the party as a whole, not the standard-bearers. We have to take a serious look at what is core and what is peripheral and jettison the things that are deadweight and peripheral (opposition to the DREAM act, for instance).
November 7, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Grave news indeed…
God Bless.
November 7, 2012 at 2:46 pm
It is not really that Romney was too moderate, it is that he seemed to not stand for anything. It is hard to get excited about that.
November 7, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Anonymous is there any evidence that Romney's loss was occasioned by a lack of enthusiasm or turnout among Republicans?
November 7, 2012 at 3:38 pm
<>
The nail is finally in the coffin on the so-called "Catholic vote." Catholics are no different than the rest of the populace.
November 7, 2012 at 3:39 pm
117M voted in 2012. 131M voted in 2008. Where were all the GOPers?
November 7, 2012 at 3:42 pm
I think people believe the media. We are in the midst of a depression but the media spins that we are in a recovery. We aren't. It's going to get a lot worse.
My one pleasure today is that we elected Ted Cruz here in Texas. You are all welcome to move here-as long as you promise not to vote Dem. There's no point try to leave the country, however, the USA was the last great hope for freedom.
November 7, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Pat,
Let me be the first to say that I am shocked and sickened by the election last night. However, this post is not what we need right now. We do not need to run, we need to pray for our country. Many people look to you and Matt for guidance and a reasonable voice. God has not left us, and now is the time to turn to God for guidance and peace. This is politics, and we have been through a lot in this country. As Catholics, we are not supposed to be of this world. This is a small cross to pick up compared to what others around the world need to do to worship in our faith.
We need a message of hope that resonates with people of all segments of our society. We have not done a good job with this even within our own Catholic base. I think a good place to start working on 2016 is with our message and our fellow Catholics.
November 7, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Oh please! I am a certified leftist (I voted Green) who lives in the reddest of red parts of Louisiana. You want to come here? I can swap houses with you (wait, where do you live?) There is a reason a lot of you Northern conservatives don't live in Red States. Because Red States are hell holes. Look at the freakin' map, why don't you? Indiana? West Virginia? Mississippi is a freakin' Third World Country! (It's right over the border.) If you like trailers, pig fat, college football, big trucks, swamp-ass weather, and hurricanes, boy, have I got the place for you! Not to mention a polluted Gulf of Mexico and a southern part of the state falling into the sea (thanks, global warming and pollution)! And guess what: not a Democrat in sight (except for New Orleans and Baton Rouge, but they are full of black people, and you would never have to see them. Promise.) You and my neighbor in a wife beater can discuss air conditioners and LSU football. You'll have a blast. Let's swap keys.
November 7, 2012 at 4:28 pm
There is no God but the Government and Barack Obama is its prophet.
El Mono Liso: say, nice to know that in those blue-state paradises like PA there is no college football or wife abuse. Oh snap!
November 7, 2012 at 4:32 pm
I am willing to bet there are fewer wife beaters per capita.
November 7, 2012 at 4:32 pm
And I mean the garment, not the act of spousal abuse.
November 7, 2012 at 4:33 pm
"It is not really that Romney was too moderate, it is that he seemed to not stand for anything. It is hard to get excited about that. "
…a moderate doesn't stand for anything….that's why know one was excited and we lost with Dole, McCain and now Romney.
November 7, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Robert — Leaving the country you say? Be glad to chip in for the one-way ticket! Please advise.
Agree with El Mono Liso — the red states are by and large cess pools of ignorance. The poorest, most uneducated people in places like Kentucky and Kansas voted for a robber baron who wants to roll right over them in one of Ann's many cadillacs.
The republican party has become an embarrassment. Time to drop the racism, tell Donald Trump to jump off the Trump Tower and give up that ridiculous religious persecution jesus complex crap. Thanks Tea Party – you've done wonders for moderate democrats!