There are victories. Many young people are returning to Church. Great news. But there’s also many things that look like victories which are far from that. I’ve seen many on the right point to these cultural trends in reducing surgical abortions and plummeting premarital sex rates as victories. They are disasters.

Trying to spin these factoids as some sort of triumph may not be the way to go. I’ve seen it said, “Oh, look, everyone! Surgical abortion rates are tumbling, and the kids aren’t having premarital sex anymore! We’re winning the culture war!”

Let’s put down the pom-poms and look at the reality, because this is not a victory at all. This may be the moment where the sea recedes and everyone gathers on the shore to watch as the tsunami gathers in the distance.

I’ve seen some pro-lifers celebrating a drop in surgical abortions as if there’s been some grand, spiritual awakening on the streets. It’s partly an illusion!

It’s not that people stopped seeking terminations; it’s that the entire apparatus shifted to medication abortions. There are pills arriving in the mail and telehealth networks. It’s a technological pivot, not a moral conversion.

Yes, there are areas that have seen massive reductions in surgical abortions but the birth rate is still dangerously low.

And what about the kids not having sex? I’ve seen some attempting to frame Gen Z as returning to chastity. There’s some truth to that. But there’s also this massive problem of digital isolation. Yes, the numbers on premarital sex are plummeting. Yay. But many aren’t abstaining because they’ve embraced scripture and chastity. Some are but many many others are abstaining because they’re trapped in a hyper-digital, algorithmic isolation ward. They’re staring at glowing rectangles for fourteen hours a day, totally disconnected from human touch.

We’ve seen what’s happening in Japan. The replacement rate is 2.1 children per couple. It’s now at 1.1. That means every generation is halving itself. The marriage rate has also halved in recent decades. But don’t worry. They’ve got robot sex partners!!!

But back to America. It’s not as if our young people are abstaining and getting married. No. Marriage rates are cratering and the birth rate is in freefall. It’s a demographic collapse wrapped in a cloak of digital alienation. That’s not a victory for tradition, it’s an existential culture-wide crisis.

So, many on the right are cheering for symptoms without really diagnosing the disease. The culture is becoming more fragmented, more technological, and increasingly isolated.

The tsunami is gathering. We should try to learn how to swim or get into a very big boat.