A Loss in Michigan would be a stake in the heart of Romney. And a lot of Republicans think it is time for GIngrich to hang it up. If he did, Santorum would be up big.
PPP: Santorum 37, Romney 33 in Michigan
The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.
The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum’s favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.
What we’re seeing in Michigan is a very different story from Florida where Romney surged by effectively destroying his opponent’s image- here Romney’s gains have more to do with building himself up.
Groups Santorum has double digit leads with include Protestants (up 47-30), union members (up 43-23), Evangelicals (up 51-24), Tea Partiers (up 55-20), ‘very conservative’ voters (up 54-23), and men (up 40-28).
Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), ‘somewhat conservative’ voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).
Newt Gingrich’s continued presence in the race is helping Romney a lot. If he dropped 45% of his supporters would go to Santorum, compared to only 29% for Romney and it would push Santorum’s lead over Romney up to 42-33. 47% of primary voters think Gingrich should drop out while only 40% believe he should continue on, but he’s certainly not showing any indication he’ll leave.
Santorum’s advantage over Romney seems to be a reflection of voters being more comfortable with where he is ideologically. 48% of voters think Santorum has more similar beliefs to them, compared to only 32% who pick Romney on that question. 63% of primary voters think Santorum’s views are ‘about right’ compared to only 42% who say that for Romney. 37% believe that Romney is ‘too liberal.’
I agree with Politico that this poll is much more in line with other polling in the state and so is not really indicative of falling Santorum support. It is a tight race and Santorum has the opportunity to really stagger Romney and maybe even knock him down. And yes, I wish Gingrich would just get out already as I believe he has had his last surge.
If Santorum knocks Romney down in Michigan, he might not get back up again.
February 20, 2012 at 2:17 pm
A sad commentary that Romney, who is so much like Obama, leads with Catholics. Sigh.
And, please Gingrich, throw in the towel already.
February 20, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Rosaries for Rick!
February 20, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Except there is just one problem: Nominee Santorum equals Obama the president in 2012. Don't you see that?
February 20, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Except there is just one problem: Nominee Santorum equals Obama the president in 2012. Don't you see that?
Well Obama is going to be the president in 2012, so what is the problem?
Oh, you mean Santorum can't beat Obama, right? Except that polls repeatedly show Santorum hanging close with Obama and faring about as well as Romney. Democrats will certainly demagogue the social issues, but Santorum is in reality in accord with most Americans on the important social issues. A Romney nomination, meanwhile, would deflate the grassroots while giving Obama and his acolytes the opportunity to play the class warfare card. In point of fact, Romney is a much more sure loser than Santorum. And Gingrich . . . not happening ever.
February 20, 2012 at 5:07 pm
I agree; should Santorum win by about 10 points over Mitt in MI and Gingrich continue to place about 20 points behind Santorum; its over – Santorum will be the nominee.
And I'm proud to say I supported Rick when he was at 1% in the polls; and I have the canceled check to prove it.
JimmyV
February 20, 2012 at 5:14 pm
In the latest Rasmussen tracking poll Obama beats Romney by four and Santorum by three. Time for Romney to bow out and make way for a more electable candidate!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
February 20, 2012 at 5:18 pm
"Except there is just one problem: Nominee Santorum equals Obama the president in 2012. Don't you see that?"
We keep hearing this same nonsense from many within the Republican party in order to justify the nomination of typical big-government, status quo, neocon, establishment candidates like McCain and now Romney. They always try to sell these awful candidates with the flawed logic that "they're the only one who can beat the Democrat blah blah blah…" (By the way, how did that work out for McCain last election?) With these kinds of attitudes, it might not be surprising to see some of these people start making suggestions like getting Hillary to run on the Republican ticket.
February 20, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Rosaries, & FASTING.
It's time to break the devil's back in America.
February 20, 2012 at 8:59 pm
"It's time to break the devil's back in America."
And Lent is a good time to do it. Prayer changes things.
February 20, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Don't ever under estimate Rick Santorum! He is David going against Goliath…he is a fighter and has been the under dog through this whole primary…he is a man who trusts in God, and with God all things are possible! If you think Rick Santorum is the best man to lead our country, put aside your doubts and support this man of faith and qualities we so desparately need now! Pray for him and his campaign!
February 21, 2012 at 9:29 am
Santys getting the Planned Parenthood vote. Yayyyy!
February 21, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Romney leads with Catholics because they believe that he is the only one who can beat Obama. I like Santorum, but I am afraid I agree that Romney has the best chance. We are fighting for our lives as a nation and a culture. The most reliable polls have indicated that Romney has the best chance.
February 21, 2012 at 5:54 pm
The moderates want Mitt…the establishment…he won't beat Barack…we need a very strong contrast like Rick Santorum! He is the conservative that can do it…don't believe what the mainline media is telling you…Rick is a fighter…vote for the one who has noble principles ruling his life…his faith!