I wish to once again be on record that I think the likelihood of war in Europe within the next 10 years is high. The economy and the political situation is going in the wrong direction. Mountains of debt, electing socialists, sticking their heads in the sand. What comes next? Scapegoating of course. Can’t have a crisis with millions of very unhappy Europeans without a scapegoat.
I don’t expect war in the WWII sense, but perhaps various civil wars that cross over borders.
Things are gonna get ugly. Europeans have been doing this forever and we are fools to think that they (or any humans) have evolved beyond this. No, things are gonna get ugly.
And you know what the US will do about it? Absolutely nothing.
Now if you buy me 7 or 8 beers sometime, I will tell you what I think comes after that. After that, things get really interesting. Another time.
Update: I say it here, it comes out there.
Victor Davis Hanson
Not since 1940 has Europe found itself so weak and incoherent in comparison to a unified and solvent Germany. And the present disconnect of nations that did most things wrong publicly demonizing Germans for doing most things right — while privately begging them for more bailout cash and guarantees — simply is politically untenable. If this continues, I would not be surprised to see a Mediterranean Franco, Salazar, Mussolini, or Metaxas emerge soon, albeit in pinstripes and with a tasteful villa on the Mediterranean.
The lead-from-behind U.S. is of little or no help.
May 15, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Surprised you did not mention the possibility of
the same, here.
May 15, 2012 at 6:02 pm
"And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet."
May 15, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Blackrep,
True, unhelpful, but true.
May 15, 2012 at 6:39 pm
I concur. Maybe within 5. It's a bubbling caldron over there.
May 15, 2012 at 7:01 pm
I would gladly buy you 7-8 beers, that should count for something.
May 15, 2012 at 8:06 pm
That depends on whether large amounts of oil are found; then the U.S. will be there.
May 16, 2012 at 3:03 am
@maxCohen: yeah, because Afghanistan has so much oil.
Still waiting on all that Iraqi oil we were supposed to be getting.
May 16, 2012 at 9:44 am
Hey Sophia's Favorite, good point. I haven't heard anything about the missing oil. Do you know of any good discussions or reports on the where Iragi oil is going?
May 16, 2012 at 11:40 am
The blog is a fine description of what Obama has made of the United States.
May 16, 2012 at 2:19 pm
But should the U.S. lead or follow Europe? Why? How? My grandfather fought in Europe in WWI; my father in WWII; the same family history is true for most readers of this column. Should we be eager to fling ourselves, our children, or our grandchildren into yet another European war?
If Mr. Hanson has a solution to Euro-chaos that does not require a multi-generational sacrifice of young Americans I'd sure like to hear it.
In a relevant aside, I was an enlisted man in Viet-Nam, and some of the places with which I was familiar now feature luxury resorts that I cannot possibly afford to visit.
A great big old existential "Why?" to the whole thing goes here.
Finally, my daughter will be subject to the draft when it is reinstated, and so will be your children. Think very carefully, folks.
— Mack
May 17, 2012 at 7:02 am
I love to hear Americans always predicting "war in Europe". I wish I could get them to bet their houses on it.
And I'm going on record as saying your prediction is total crap. Let's check back in Y-minus 10
May 17, 2012 at 2:21 pm
The thing to have your eye out for is outbreak of civil war in Italy, followed closely by outbreak of civil war in France. If/when these events occur, the term chastisement will be a household word.
May 17, 2012 at 4:01 pm
I hope that the US does nothing. Let Europe get along without us for a while.
May 17, 2012 at 4:37 pm
In the event of war in europe,it's anyone's guess as to who the 'good guy' would be this time around. America would likely do what she has always done: wait a good long time before doing anything, then go in an mop up.
May 17, 2012 at 5:59 pm
..and um…and…then these BIG planes are gonna shoot lazers into the whitehouse! and the president's gonna be like, "Let's get 'em!" And then…um…then there are gonna be these aliens who are gonna come down…
May 17, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Frankly, I think war is likely within three years or less in Greece. The world wants to know: what weapons are they going to fight with? Rocks?
Why do I think this? There is an unfathomable well of discontent and entitlement going on there. I'll buy 8-10 for some place like Britain.
With France wearing red-tinted specs and ignoring reality by turning up it's iPod, Germany is likely to drop-kick the lot. I have a feeling things are worse than they are letting on.