Poll after poll shows Obama leading Romney from anywhere from 3 to 6 points.
This is why I think that the race is actually a dead heat.
Almost every one of those polls (with the exception of Rasmussen) gives a sampling advantage to Democrats. This is fine, but the sampling advantages are so skewed as to be laughable.
Let’s look at some recent elections to get a feel for what we can expect. In 2004, the voting public among voters registered with a party was dead even at 37 for Republicans in Democrats. As we know, 2006 turned worse for Republicans and they experienced serious setbacks in the house and this was a bellwether for 2008 when Democrats saw a 7 point advantage at the polls, their highest ever.
Clearly, Democrat enthusiasm is down since 2008 and in 2010 we saw huge turnout for Republicans handing the Democrats an historic defeat in Congress.
So now when pollsters estimate the turnout model for 2012, you would expect them to choose a number reflective of 2010 and closer to 2004. I think that anything between dead even and D+3 could be defended.
So is that what pollsters are doing? Not even close. Many pollsters, in an effort to dishearten Republicans, are skewing their samples sizes ridiculously toward Democrats. Some just pretend that 2010 never happened and use the D+7 from 2008 as a sample. As ludicrous as that may seem, others however not only assume that but add another D+6 on top of that!!
Take for instance this new CBS/NYT poll. The poll has Obama up 3 points but the sampling has D+13. 13 points!!! That is ludicrous beyond belief and an embarrassment to anyone associated with it.
So what I have done is take a sampling of several polls and plotted the Obama advantage against the Dem sampling advantage using slightly updated information obtained here.
What you can see is that looking at the trend line using a Democrat sampling advantage of anywhere from D+0 to D+3, which I think is much more in line with reality, the race is a statistical dead heat right now. Actually, I think anything south of D+3 spells real trouble for the Democrats.
So do not despair, the race is tied right now and Romney has an advantage among independents in almost every poll. If I read this right, I think that against an incumbent, the challenger Romney is in a pretty good spot right now. If he holds his own in the debates, I actually still think the advantage goes to Romney. Time will tell, but I think the race stands dead even right now. What do you think?
September 17, 2012 at 5:24 pm
I think that after the attack on our embassy in Libya and in Egypt, the mass protests all over the middle east and around the world, and how our president goes partying for his re-elction in Vegas, he's got to lose. He is totally Jimmy Carter.
September 17, 2012 at 5:42 pm
I suspect you're right, Pat, but Amy I think you're wrong. Many, many people — or at least the ones I know — don't think that's a problem at all. They tell me there was no way for the president to have prevented any of that and they don't care about him "partying in Las Vegas" or filming Dave Letterman. They agree with the administration that it's all about a nasty video that ought to be condemned and they don't see how protecting our diplomats is actually possible — or so they tell me.
September 17, 2012 at 6:11 pm
Hey Gail, think back to 2004 and try to remember if those people of your acquaint didn't think the "My Pet Goat" kerfluffle on 9/11 was a problem for Bush.
September 17, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Yeah, Pat, I think it's a tie, too. The thing I'm wondering about is how do you factor in the massive voter fraud which will be aided & abetted by Eric Holder's DO(in)J. Romney should really be polling much better than he is now. I think he'll need to pull off stellar debate performances to win. Sure hope he's got it in him.
September 17, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Micha: It doesn't matter what htey thought then, they vote.
September 17, 2012 at 7:20 pm
A question: has anyone ever done a study of who answers polls? I do and have been polled weekly or more for months on my home phone. Never got a poll call on my cell, though. Does that have any effect?
I agree, either very close or Romney ahead. I don't think we are done with this crisis, though.
September 17, 2012 at 9:14 pm
Anneg, most national polls use both cell and land line numbers now, though I can't speak to each of the specific polls in question here. The use of land line only would tend to skew the results toward an older population, as younger people are more likely NOT to have land lines but only cells. What I would really like to know (but they're not about to tell us) is what the refusal rate is. If substantial numbers of people (like me) are refusing to even answer these political polls, and if those people are more likely to vote for one candidate than another, their results could be way, way off. My advice to everyone is to never answer political polls since doing so only makes it easier for them to find ways to manipulate the actual vote.
September 18, 2012 at 2:22 am
Polls are fake. They're meant to keep the race in the news so that the news peddlers have something to sell.
Worse, the propagandists are keeping the Democrats from being demoralized and are trying to dishearten us.
Ultimately, if Romney does not win overwhelmingly i.e. beyond the margin of fraud, then they can claim that it has been a close race all along.
So, Romney is way shellacking ahead of that Kenyan Muslim Baby Killer Pinko Commie.