The Number You Want To Look At

Polls, polls, and more polls. What to make of it all.

I wish to make a quick point about polls. Nationally the RCP average of polls has Romney up by 0.9. That may not seem like much but…

Let’s take a look.

The key take away from the above, even including some polls with very questionable Democrat turnout assumptions, Romney is still winning, but not by much.

But, even with those skewed polls included, the Obama averages only 46.8%.  That is not a good place to be for an incumbent.  It is an even worse place to be as an incumbent when every single poll shows independents going to Romney with big numbers, double digits in many.

If the above is correct, I think there is a strong possibility that Romney wins nationally by 3% or more.  And before you start shouting about state polls and the electoral college, if Romney wins nationally by those margins, he almost certainly take Ohio and quite possibly a few unexpected states as well. a 4% margin gets you 300 electoral votes or more.

I am not saying this is in the bag for Romney, I am saying that Obama really wishes he was in Romney’s bag.