The conventional wisdom seems to be that the Democrats will suffer for this healthcare bill. And I believe they will…to a point.
In the short term I believe Democrats are about to be trounced in the November elections. And I think they’ve accepted that as well.
But in the long term I’d bet Democrats see this as a long term win. I’ve heard it said in a few places that Democrats now “own” healthcare much like Bush “owned” the war, meaning that every medical mix-up, every complaint, every long line will be blamed on the Democrats. Forever and forever.
But that’s where I’m not in agreement.
Once this thing gets rolling and problems start arising (and there will be many problems) the Democrats will then hold press conferences saying that a fix is needed that will require some money and a wee bit more government oversight. The Republicans will likely stand against the fix and then we’ll be subject to media marathons about horror stories where people are working seven jobs just to keep their children alive while they’re on dialysis and only have one leg so they can’t get on the bus. You know, the kind of stories the media specializes in. Then you’ll have the Democrat come on and say he’s introduced a bill that will help that person but the Republicans are blocking it. And Republicans will look like the bad guys.
Look, every time Republicans simply tried to slow the rate of growth of programs they’ve gotten blasted for it as taking “draconian cuts.”
Democrats know the playing field is not level and that’s why they’re perfectly willing to take the short term hit for a long term gain that will keep on giving every time there’s a problem with our healthcare system.
March 22, 2010 at 3:25 am
Any other Texans feel like seceding is beginning to sound attractive once again?
March 22, 2010 at 3:30 am
Matt:
The difference is that the bank is broke – ain't nobody got no money to pay for this. The days of nuanced lying about slowing the rate of growth in programs is coming to a slamming halt. This will be the equivalent of gas lines in the Carter years – TIMES TEN.
The only thing that could make this turn out like you predict is if "Green Jobs" creates an economic boom.
If the economy is at the wall – and everyone thinks its at the wall – then the political problem with health care has no fiscal outlet – and every problem with health care will be a democrat party problem.
March 22, 2010 at 3:57 am
The only things on earth that are eternal are federal govenment programs. The pro-life movement is likely over. There is no way that abortion, a legal "medical" procedure, can be kept out of a nationalized health system. The mild bleatings of the abortion groups right now are proof. They know that the fix is established but that they must do some "protesting" to cover up the fix.
March 22, 2010 at 4:12 am
Healthcare is different in many ways especially at this time. Medicare and Medicaid are in severe trouble today. The federal government is broke. Doctors are soon going to say no to medicare patients in droves. The system was going to implode and the democrats just rushed in to take control. Fixing healthcare is not going to be easy or cheap. However, most Americans do not even know that it has major issues today. That means that everything that happens going forward will be traced to this day.
March 22, 2010 at 4:31 am
The best response, then is to vote against all Democrats this Fall and try to give the Republicans a veto-proof majority. Then they can reverse the legislation before it has a chance to bite. Rep. Paul Ryan's truthful approach to fixing healthcare is what should come next.
Unfortunately, there are too many voters who don't owe Federal tax and get far more from their Social Security than they put in (since it's redistributive). This is the Deomcrats' natural constituency – folks who expect others to pay for what they want.
Even though I believe those with means should give sacrificially to widows and orphans – the operative verb is "GIVE". The government's approach is to forcibly *TAKE*. Not only does it strip me of money that I can spend far more wisely than they, it also strips me of the means to freely give as much as I'd like.
Anyway, this Independent will be working this Fall to strip the Dems of their majority.
March 22, 2010 at 4:37 am
If it wasn't certain up to this point, it's a sure thing now: the sun sets on America. You're spot on Matt. Health care will be the defining policy issue for the USA from this point on. Our responsibilities as a global super power? Whatever. It might be sensible to empty out a couple of the rings of the Pentagon and replace them with the armies of health beuraucracy workers who will have to manage the minute details of each of our ailments. President Barack "Dead Babies" Obama is one of the most consequential presidents in history. Rep Stupack reminds me of Chamberlain returning from Munich with his "piece of paper".
March 22, 2010 at 4:40 am
Jesse,
I think we Tennesseans might do it first if y'all haven't left by November.
March 22, 2010 at 5:20 am
So, Democracy is only good if I have it "my way". Pretty short-sighted.
March 22, 2010 at 5:37 am
As people remain unemployed and more loose their jobs they're going to look for someone to blame, which would be the democrats. The dems playbook has not changed in 40 years, but our world and the current situation has changed drastically. How can this possibly be bad for republicans? The reason they lost power in the first place because they didn't stand on their principles and voted for Medicare part D and the first bailout.
November 2010 – say goodbye to democrats and RINOS
March 22, 2010 at 10:17 am
I hope one of you (Texas, Tennessee, wherever) secedes so I can move my family there! LOL What a debacle.
Followed your blog throughout this abomination…thanks for the regular updates. Woke up in the Marxist States of America today. 🙁
March 22, 2010 at 11:32 am
The world is rapidly changing in ways that were unimaginable ten years ago, so let's not get too caught up in our crystal balls just yet. I think that the Lord, who after all created both Aces and sleeves, has a few of them left to play. In 1920, a dry America looked like forever…by 1933, folks across the country were hoisting a few as the Volstead Act went down as a major legislative blunder.
Health care will change but not in the ways that the Democrats think. My bet is still that President O is bound to either resign or to be impeached before 2012.
March 22, 2010 at 11:51 am
Reagan understood how to deal with a fat bloated federal government. Tell people you want to give them a tax cut. Force the demokrats to have to stand up and say they are against tax cuts. Present a tax cut plan that cuts out most of the tax base. Put the fat bloated federal government on a fiscal diet that will kill programs precious to the demokrats. Force them to have to make hard decisions about keeping alive what really matters to them. The federal government is running on borrowed money. The demokrats may not like it, they may try to avoid dealing with it but the credit card has no more room. They will soon have to face their supporters and say, "You have to pay more." And since their supporters were told they would not have to pay for anything, they are not going to like being told, "Open your wallet." Good for America.
March 22, 2010 at 12:00 pm
"Anonymous said…
So, Democracy is only good if I have it "my way". Pretty short-sighted."
According to reports I've heard and read, the vast majority of American voters who were asked by opinion pollsters about this particular bill were strongly opposed to it. A majority of American voters tell pollsters they are in favor of health care reform, true, but not as it is being presented to them in this bill.
March 22, 2010 at 1:56 pm
To add to Midday's comment to you, Anonymous, Democracy is only good if it's Democracy.
March 23, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Very good point, Matthew. When this happens, and I believe with you that it will, I will tell everyone that you called it.