I am sick to death of this subject and my nerves are fried as I suppose are the nerves of many of you out there.
Electoral college v. Popular Vote, RCP average, Party sampling, turnout, early voting, Sandy, likely voting screens…..
Make it stop.
While I acknowledge that anything can happen tomorrow, I take a look at few bottom line figures.
On the eve of the election, arguably the 2 most prestigious polling outfits, Rasmussen and Gallup, have Romney up nationally by 1. But more importantly, Obama is still stuck at 48%. Behind even by a point and stuck at 48% is not a good place to be for an incumbent to be. There is no spinning this.
Further, the party ID surveys for Rasmussen & Gallup show a Republican advantage. Rasmussen has a survey of 15,000 likely voters that give Republicans a 5.8% voter ID advantage. Other major polls have shown similar results.
Further, almost every poll, even the ones with Obama in the lead, show a big lead among independents for Romney. This is also indisputable.
So the Most reputable pollsters have Romney up and Obama stuck at 48%. They show a big independent preference for Romney and a positive Republican party ID.
If the party ID of the actual electorate is simply close to even, never mind R+, Romney wins.
Am I scared? You betcha! But this is the polling bottom line as I see it.