John Nolte at Breitbart says the polls are wrong. That is familiar enough. But he backs his assertion up with polls.
While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.
According to Twitter’s invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D 7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D 3. (2010 was D 0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn’t have.)
If the 2012 race is D 2, Romney’s probably going to win. If the race is R 6, Romney’s going to enjoy a landslide.
The most important piece of information in this poll, though, is that Rasmussen’s sample is a monstrous 15,000 likely voter. Moreover, Rasmussen’s Party ID results match similar results found by Gallup and Pew.
November 5, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Rasmussen is reporting that Republican party identification is +5.8% vs Democrats. In November of 2008 it was -7.6%.
If that's the case and most pollsters are profiling their sampling off of the previous presidential election cycle, their numbers are not just wrong, they're quite possibly not even close. This could a landslide.
I'm going to hold a good thought, and pray a lot.