Earlier in the week when the Honduras thing broke, I did some digging into the situation and concluded that the Obama administration had yet again missed the mark.
After I wrote “Honduras For Dummies” I spoke with a liberal colleague at work and told him of my conclusions. He of course immediately assumed as others have, that I am reflexively anti-Obama and that my facts and judgment must be wrong.
Yesterday, as we were leaving work at the same time, he came up to me and said “You know, I have been looking into this Honduras thing and I think you might be right.” He then asked me why I thought Obama was doing this when at the very least the situation is muddy? Here was my answer to him. Iran.
The thing that needs to be understood is that this is about politics not principle. Power politics. The President was roundly criticized for what was widely perceived as a weak and ineffectual response the uprising in Iran. In Iran the principle was very clear. The Iranian people were standing up for free and fair elections and many were losing their lives because of it. The thug regime in Iran, knowing it was on the losing side of the election, took the steps necessary to fake the vote and suppress the consequent outrage. Contrary to what Obama tried to sell days later, this was not about whether Ahmadinejad or Mousavi was a better candidate. They are probably two peas in a pod. Rather, this was about the Iranian people standing up for their rights to fairly elect their leaders. Obama’s silence was cold calculation, nothing more.
Obama concluded that Ahmadinejad and the mullahs would do whatever it takes to hold on to power and that at the end of the day the protests would fail to effect any change. It did not matter that that the people were standing up for their rights or that the regime was killing them for doing so. What matters most to Obama is who will win. Who will have the power? Obama made the judgment, a correct one, that Ahmadinejad would remain in power and he would hamper his grand plans for negotiation if he opted for principle over power.
Where Obama’s judgment probably missed the mark was the scope of the protests. He probably thought that they would be over quickly and with little coverage in the west. He was surprised. The protest spirit in Iran was greater than just about anyone imagined and continued for days forcing the regime in Iran to take greater measures. The other thing Obama did not count on was Neda. When her gruesome death instantaneously made its way around the world, Obama knew he had trouble. It was Neda’s death and the subsequent worldwide outrage that finally forced Obama’s hand causing him to come out with at least a moderate rebuke of the Iranian tactics. The criticism of Obama had become general. Obama was weak and did not care much about democratic principles. This type of criticism was not merely confined to the right.
So when the Honduras situation broke, Obama saw an opportunity to right the ship. The president of Honduras was duly elected and forced out of the country by the military. That is a coup. Coups are bad and most certainly undemocratic. Obama jumped all over the chance to meddle because he could do so, unlike in Iran, without any fears of consequences. Free from these consequences Obama saw an opportunity to portray himself as a champion of democracy and undo some of the damage from his inaction and inaudibility on Iran. So Obama ran to the nearest microphone and denounced in no uncertain terms the actions of the military in Honduras.
But again Obama misjudged the situation. Coups are certainly an ugly business and undemocratic by default. But what started to become clear, to those interested, over the following days is that President Zelaya is an aspiring baddie in the model of Chavez. Zelaya was operating in a clearly unconstitutional manner in an effort to preserve his power. What is clear is that Zelaya was undermining democratic principle in Honduras.
Certainly, it would have been best if the Supreme Court and the military could have found some way short of deposing Zelaya to defend the Constitution and the rule of law. One would assume that the Honduran Constitution and it laws provide some remedy for such illegal behavior short of exile. Be that as it may, the continuing actions of the congress, the military, and the Supreme Court in Honduras certainly indicate that they are indeed interested in preserving democracy and they will provide for new elections within months.
But now that Obama has staked out such a reactionary and resolute position on the Honduran situation, it is politically impossible for him to retreat from it. Honduras in thrown under the bus and there is no getting up. He is portraying himself as the defender of democracy, the facts be damned. To admit now that he got this wrong as well would spell political doom for him, so he will stick to his guns no matter what. Obama has made the further calculation that the media will carry his water on this one and obscure the facts. Absent a Neda moment, this situation will be forgotten by the general public within days and Obama can successfully portray himself as the great defender of democracy. Unfortunately, this is one calculation in which he is probably correct.
July 2, 2009 at 6:19 pm
So, whose job will it become to remind Americans of this mistake once again? I'm thinking it will be the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, but then again, it seems that will be too late. Of course, assuming this type of politics continues it is not likely to be difficult to find major mistakes in his policies and actions that are much more recent in 2012. Let's hope all of America will hear them by that time.
July 2, 2009 at 8:15 pm
Obama is making a fiasco of American foreign policy as we speak. He snubbed Sarkozy for a dinner invitation and blew all protocol by extending an invite to the D-Day ceremonies to the Queen of England which should have been the decision by the French Government. So, if you dislike the French, Obama is your man. Unfortunately, this isn't isolated to them, as he seems to have a predilection for either ignorance of protocol or simply not caring. The only deference he seems to pay is of course towards his infidel cronies, to which he apparently can't kow-tow low enough.
July 2, 2009 at 8:24 pm
The Honduras situation needs a lot more coverage than it is getting. I listened to a story about this on NPR the other day, and they presented the story as Obama defending the elected leader, Zelaya, against a military coup: a deliberate distortion of the truth. The truth needs to come out on this. Keep it coming. Kit.
July 3, 2009 at 12:49 am
Very good points.
I'm incredibly grumpy this week, so my only real response to the Honduras situation is highly unhelpful and snarky:
"Hey, Obama is worried about a military that will support the Constitution and rule of law over a president who wants to make him self into a dictator. What, did it hit too close to home?"
July 3, 2009 at 1:02 am
Has nothing to do with Honduras, but interesting nonetheless:
Many thought they'd never see the day that Helen Thomas and Chip Reid took someone else besides George W. Bush to task. Does this mean Obama's honeymoon with the press is coming to an end? To see this recent exchange with White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs regarding a recent “Town Hall” where all the people and questions were pre-screened and controlled, go here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fh5vzOAEQ-A
Thomas revealed more frustration in an interview with CNS News:
“Nixon didn’t try to do that,” Thomas said. “They couldn’t control (the media). They didn’t try. “What the hell do they think we are, puppets?” Thomas said. “They’re supposed to stay out of our business. They are our public servants. We pay them.”
Thomas said she was especially concerned about the arrangement between the Obama Administration and a writer from the liberal Huffington Post Web site. The writer was invited by the White House to President Obama’s press conference last week on the understanding that he would ask Obama a question about Iran from among questions that had been sent to him by people in Iran.
“When you call the reporter the night before you know damn well what they are going to ask to control you,” Thomas said. “I’m not saying there has never been managed news before, but this is carried to fare-thee-well–for the town halls, for the press conferences,” she said. “It’s blatant. They don’t give a damn if you know it or not. They ought to be hanging their heads in shame.”
***************
In German you say that lies have short legs….. I am only hoping that his lies will catch up with the man real soon!
Blessings, Mum26