Seriously folks. Just about anyone who knows me knows that I am a glass is half full kinda guy. Keep this in mind when I say the following.
We are so screwed.
I am not even gonna go into our domestic politics, this is a much bigger ‘we are screwed’ than that.
Let’s start with the small stuff, say like, the world economy. Conventional wisdom says it is recovering albeit slowly. My gut says bunk. But let’s leave my gut out of it. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard says that we are in for a major credit crunch due to impending debt deflation. This means that asset backed credit is likely to go belly up just like it did last year, and maybe even worse this time. Evans-Pritchard says that the signs are all there just like last time and just like last time they are being ignored.
New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, famous for predicting the economic crisis says that commodities are overvalued and are in line for a correction. This means that for the commodities and stock market is about to go kerplunk again. Now, what happens when equities go belly up? Oh yes, that leads to debt deflation. Remember what I said about the signs being ignored?
And with the world’s largest economy monetizing its debt like its going out of style the Fed has no choice but to start pulling some money out of the economy or risk hyper-inflation. But raising interest rates when things are headed south while fighting a credit crunch due to debt deflation and recession is not a popular thing to do. My guess is that the Fed will not have the guts to do all it needs to do to suck money out and inflation will skyrocket in 2010.
But enough about the good news. This will all be remembered as the good ol’ days when Iran starts a war. Yes, I said when. Jeffrey T. Kuhner writing in the Washington Times says its no longer an if but a when. Israel stops Iran from getting the bomb – war! Israel does nothing to stop Iran from getting the bomb – war! Of course, if that happens the days of $150 oil will be a fond memory as will the economies of the industrialized world.
Russia is also getting ready to tighten the screws on Ukraine (and Europe by extension) buy cutting off gas supplies just as they did last winter. Russia can basically do whatever it wants to whomever it wants, who will stop them? Not us for sure.
Lastly, Ireland’s vote to ratify the European Union’s Lisbon Treaty has finally cleared the way for the creation of a powerful new president, intended to elevate the 27-nation bloc’s standing on the global stage. A powerful new president of Europe. Oh what could possibly go wrong with that?
On the upside (see I told you I am an optimist) ammo, seeds, diesel fuel, and beer are all still readily available. Stock up while supplies last.