The latest Pew poll has Barack Obama up a whopping 14 points! Insert your despair here but…(and this is a big but) look at the internals of the poll.
Here’s the thing the media won’t tell you about this poll: The party ID breakdown in the poll is: Democrat/Lean Democrat 51%; Republican/Lean Republican 36%.
That’s means they polled 15 percent more Democrats than Republicans. That measurement is nothing short of madness. The actual differential on Election Day in 2006 (which was a spectacularly bad year for Republicans) was three percent. Rasmussen and Zogby have the Dem ID over the Republicans at 5-6 percent.
But Pew somehow believes that on Election day there will be 15 percent more Democrats than Republicans, something that’s never come close to happening before. Give me a break.
The only actual news coming out of the Pew poll is that if you poll Democrats they will drastically favor Obama.
Now, to what end are these polls being done. It is simply to dispirit Republicans so they don’t show up to the polls. That’s it. I honestly never thought America would become a country where truth would be so hidden by the powers that be. But we are there. We are living 1984. We are being lied to and so many of us don’t even know it.
Update: Just more proof that polling means nothing. Today’s AP POLL has McCain & Obama Essentially all even! …And McCain is down just 3 in the IBD polls. These people know less than Weather men. No, not the terrorist Weathermen, I mean those people on the news who tell you it’s raining when it’s raining.
October 22, 2008 at 3:13 am
You’ve got this spot on. The sole purpose of most of the polls out there are to tell us all that everyone loves Obama and there is no sense in fighting it. It’s to keep the non-kool-aid drinkers home. Don’t give up folks. Vote your conscience! Vote to save the country!
October 22, 2008 at 11:43 am
“But Pew somehow believes that on Election day there will be 15 percent more Democrats than Republicans, something that’s never come close to happening before.”
How many fraudulent votes adds up to 15%? That’s what scares me!
October 22, 2008 at 1:22 pm
We’re in for a rough ride yet. Hang on people, this is going to get interesting.
October 22, 2008 at 1:36 pm
I saw this article on line the other day:
http://www.zombietime.com/lefts_big_blunder/
It looks at the underlying motivations for this dodgy polling, and concludes that it will be counter-productive for the Obamanation camp.
It’s well worth a read.
October 22, 2008 at 5:57 pm
meg touched on it but I’ll say it outright. The purpose of the oversampling is twofold:
1. demoralize the opposition (which you rightly pointed out), and
2. cover up the voter fraud which is likely to occur, knowing that the fraudulent votes won’t be from Republicans.
But perhaps I’m too cynical.
Perhaps it’s just innocent oversampling because independents/Republicans mind their own business and don’t talk to pollsters. That’s a reasonable explanation and it very well could be.
But perhaps I’m not too cynical. That’s what worries me.
God Bless,
Ryan
October 22, 2008 at 7:11 pm
Aren’t there more dems in the US and that is why they poll more dems??
October 22, 2008 at 8:29 pm
Maybe the State needs to reign in the media. We could mandate equal coverage for all viable political parties.
October 22, 2008 at 8:34 pm
anon,
not 15 percent more. that’s the point.
October 22, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Are we certain that the pollsters don’t adjust for this when they give their final results?
If they do, then the polls are rightfully demoralizing.
October 22, 2008 at 11:42 pm
Not only do they not adjust for this, some are adjusting towards it because they believe that young people and African-Americans are going to vote in record numbers.
October 23, 2008 at 12:15 am
“Maybe the State needs to reign in the media. We could mandate equal coverage for all viable political parties.”
dcs – As much as I dislike the bias of the media as it currently exists, they still have the “freedom of the press”. I don’t want “the State” reigning them. I’m hoping that people will finally wake up and tell the newspapers et al that subscriptions are being cancelled over things like this.
Also, the polls were about as wacky in 2004. However, the pollsters’ reputations are at stake (surprisingly enough) and they will attempt to be more accurate the closer we get to the election.
We’re already seeing the ‘surge’ by McCain taking place.
October 23, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Also, the polls were about as wacky in 2004.
Some polls had Kerry ahead at this point, but the average poll had Bush leading by 2 points.