Religion is undoubtedly the cultural divide in our electoral system. More accurate than any demographic is the observant religious vs. the occasionally religious or agnostic. So I guess if you want McCain to win, go convert somebody.
The past month has seen an increase in Catholics returning to the Republican fold now that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has joined McCain on the ticket. Team Obama is none too pleased with that as a main reason for the selection of Biden was to woo Catholics.
But why the sudden shift.
Before the veep announcements, McCain and Obama split the votes of white Catholics who attend church weekly. McCain has now opened a 16 percentage point lead among these Catholics, according to a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center.
Catholics overall (meaning Christmas Catholics and observant Catholics together) are tilting McCain. This is from Pew:
This is good news for the pro-life community and although its difficult to say what it is due to, many pundits are saying it was the Palin announcement. I’m a big fan of Sarah Palin and her selection has invigorated me and many people I know. But I also have to wonder if it had something to do with the bishops coming out publicly against the statements of Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden. Amazing what a little evangelizing and instruction can do, huh?
September 20, 2008 at 8:01 pm
The Pelosi/biden gaffes contribute, as does the Palin pick, but even more to my mind is the anti-Palin attack by the Freakish Enemies of the Normal as Shea puts it. That is, many Catholics are like Darth Vader watching Emperor Palpatine lightning-fry Luke, and realizing they need to stop siding with moral monsters.
September 20, 2008 at 8:59 pm
…many Catholics are like Darth Vader watching Emperor Palpatine lightning-fry Luke, and realizing they need to stop siding with moral monsters.
That is a classic! Solid classic. Sir Alec Guiness, pray for us!
September 21, 2008 at 3:36 am
I don’t know how much of an effect the bishops comments had except on the people who like to listen to bishops anyway. My parents are your typical boomer Catholics, they go to Mass every week but I think that’s only because my Mom was raised Catholic – it’s what they’ve always done so that’s what they do. Other than the name on the church they go to there’s nothing distinctively Catholic about them. Anyway when I visited them last weekend they hadn’t even heard of the whole Pelosi/Biden controversy – nor were they very interested.
September 21, 2008 at 9:23 am
I think Brian is right: I don’t think what the bishops are saying has registered with anybody outside the Catholic blogosphere. There were a couple of AP pieces on it, but nobody paid them any mind.
September 21, 2008 at 2:07 pm
Actually, I visited a NC parish while travelling during the week of Pelosi-gate and at the conclusion of Mass the priest read a statement correcting her errors and mentioning the bishops response. It got applause. This wasn’t some TLM ultra-conservative parish, it was as typical as any.
Parishes are loathe to get into politics for good reason, but when Pelosi and Biden decided to wax theological, it gave every parish in the country a 007 License to Teach. I think many more used it than normal.
September 21, 2008 at 6:12 pm
Jody Bottum addressed this very question in a recent article in the Weekly Standard (“More Catholic than the Pope?”)
I tend to agree with him that the Catholic position on abortion is firmer in the public’s mind AND firmer in the Catholic mind these days. In this election, there are many more of us Catholic Democrats who won’t be able to pull that lever for Obama:
http://www.theweeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/592xzarb.asp?pg=1
An excerpt:
“…there remains that question of abortion. Things have tightened over the last few years, the Catholic position is firmer in the public’s mind–firmer in the Catholic mind, for that matter. McCain was a long way from the pro-lifers’ first choice for a Republican nominee, but the Democrats this election cycle are determined to force the issue. They’ve pushed, and they’ve pushed, and they’ve pushed, until Catholics are falling off the cliff. Poor Doug Kmiec and his sad question, “Can a Catholic Support Him?” As a matter of good conscience, the answer looks increasingly like no, a Catholic can’t support Obama. And as a matter of political fact–well, that’s starting to look like no, as well, isn’t it?….”
September 23, 2008 at 12:13 am
Brian said: I don’t know how much of an effect the bishops comments had except on the people who like to listen to bishops anyway.
I agree with you hear. I would like to think that bishops are getting more air time on the subject. But generally, if you are a church-going Catholic, you know what the bishops’ and he church’s stance is on the issue already. I have yet to meet a Catholic who is surprised at the fact that the church is against abortion. I HAVE met Catholics who try to rationalise their personal choices (like Pelosi) by citing the whole “follow your conscience” clause. But that’s as far as it goes.
So, I tend to agree that those Catholics who were going to vote for a pro-life candidate on that basis will do so anyway, as will those who intended to vote for a pro-abortion candidate.